Is the Measure J election too close to call?

The short answer: probably not.

As of late Wednesday, the Los Angeles County Registrar told KCET that there were 792,658 ballots remaining to be counted in Los Angeles County. The remaining ballots are either vote-by-mail ballots or provisional ballots.

Could this tip the scales in terms of Measure J? The answer: It’s possible but unlikely.

Thus far, the yes votes on Measure J are at 64.72 percent. Measure J needs 66.67 percent of the votes to be approved. In order to overcome that nearly two-point deficit, support for Measure would need to run in the 70 to 75 percent range among the remaining ballots.

We spent a lot of time pouring over the numbers Wednesday evening. There are a couple issues:

•About 10 percent of the votes cast thus far in L.A. County didn’t include a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote on Measure J. That means it’s probable that some of the 792,658 of the remaining ballots do not include a Measure J vote one way or the other.

•We took a good look at the city-by-city results for Measure J and there just aren’t that many places in the county where support was running in the 70 to 75 percent range to help overcome the current two-point deficit — and it’s not likely all the remaining votes came from those places.

We have some nice maps on the J results that I’ll be posting shortly.

Categories: Policy & Funding

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6 replies

  1. Regardless of whether it’s unlikely, please write something when the final count is tallied. Fingers crossed!

  2. Well, I voted by mail, so add one more to the tally in favor of Measure J. I doubt it’ll make a difference, though. Shame about that.

  3. If the remaining ballots are either provisional or mail-in votes, then the question to ask is, “Are mail-in voters and/or provisional voters likely to vote differently than the general populace?” That question provokes, “What type of person votes early?” and “What type of person/what circumstances are typically involved in a provisional vote?”. If those 2 questions have answers (and I think they probably do), then it’s possible to hold out hope (or give up entirely).